Taiwan Semiconductor’s A.I. Surge: Ready for More Gains or Hitting a Speed Bump?
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Investing in the funds involves a high degree of risk. Unlike traditional ETFs, or even other leveraged and/or inverse ETFs, these leveraged and/or inverse single-stock ETFs track the price of a single stock rather than an index, eliminating the benefits of diversification. Leveraged and inverse ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying stock’s performance over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. The Funds will lose money if the underlying stock’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Bull Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance increases, and the Bear Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance decreases, over a period longer than a single day. Investing in the Funds is not equivalent to investing directly in TSM.
Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (Ticker: TSM) are fresh off a blowout earnings report, where results exceeded expectations. Much of their business growth is being driven by demand for chips related to artificial intelligence (AI), but after gapping up higher after earnings, is there still room for additional upside?
Another AI Beneficiary
Taiwan Semiconductor is a major producer of artificial intelligence chips designed by companies including Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices. TSM’s third quarter profits rose 54% compared to last year, and the company raised its guidance outlook. Management even forecasted that AI revenue could triple in the next year.
TSM is also integral to the automotive industry as more and more vehicles are using smart chips in their design. The company’s relationship with Apple cannot be understated either, and as long as its partnerships remain strong, its revenue growth potential benefits.
Various analysts are looking for the overall semiconductor industry valuation to grow over 12% in 2025. Since TSM is at the forefront of the industry, the company could be poised to drive much of this growth at the industry level.
Traders looking for more upside in Taiwan Semiconductor may find a trade with Direxion’s Daily TSM Bull 2X Shares (Ticker: TSMX), which seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the performance of the common shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (Ticker: TSM).
Below is a daily chart of TSM as of October 18, 2024.
Source: TradingView.com
Candlestick charts display the high and low (the stick) and the open and close price (the body) of a security for a specific period. If the body is filled, it means the close was lower than the open. If the body is empty, it means the close was higher than the open.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Could an Economic Slowdown Hurt Chips?
While it seems that the momentum in the artificial intelligence sector is strong, there are growing concerns about a potential economy slowdown. This may be one of the major reasons why central banks around the world have begun to ease monetary policy.
In the United States, the initial Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)* number will be released on October 30. In the event it comes in below estimates, it could foreshadow a drop in consumer demand. This could affect many companies such as Apple and other automotive companies, which are major customers of TSM. This could potentially impact the revenue and earnings growth of TSM, and if they come in below forecasted estimates, could lead to a selloff.
In this situation, Direxion’s Daily TSM Bear 1X Shares (Ticker: TSMZ), which seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 100% of the inverse (or opposite) of the performance of the common shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (Ticker: TSM), could see a nice rebound.
*Definitions and Index Descriptions
An investor should carefully consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Direxion Shares. To obtain a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit our website at www.direxion.com. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.
The Funds have derived all disclosures contained in this document regarding Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited from publicly available documents. In connection with the offering of each Fund’s securities, neither the Funds, the Trust, nor the Adviser or any of its respective affiliates has participated in the preparation of such documents. Neither the Funds, the Trust nor the Adviser or any of its respective affiliates makes any representation that such publicly available documents or any other publicly available information regarding Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited is accurate or complete. Furthermore, the Funds cannot give any assurance that all events occurring prior to the date hereof (including events that would affect the accuracy or completeness of the publicly available documents described above) that would affect the trading price of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited have been publicly disclosed. Subsequent disclosure of any such events or the disclosure of or failure to disclose material future events concerning Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited could affect the value of a Fund’s investments with respect to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited and therefore the value of the Funds.
Direxion Shares Risks – An investment in a Fund involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Each Fund is non-diversified and includes risks associated with a Fund concentrating its investments in a particular security, industry, sector, or geographic region which can result in increased volatility. A Fund's investments in derivatives such as futures contracts and swaps may pose risks in addition to, and greater than, those associated with directly investing in securities or other investments, including imperfect correlations with underlying investments or the Fund's other portfolio holdings, higher price volatility and lack of availability. As a result, the value of an investment in a Fund may change quickly and without warning.
Leverage Risk – The Bull Fund obtains investment exposure in excess of its net assets by utilizing leverage and may lose more money in market conditions that are adverse to its investment objective than a fund that does not utilize leverage. A total loss may occur in a single day. Leverage will also have the effect of magnifying any differences in the Fund’s correlation with TSM and may increase the volatility of the Bull Fund.
Daily Correlation Risk - A number of factors may affect the Bull Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of correlation with TSM and therefore achieve its daily leveraged investment objective. The Bull Fund’s exposure to TSM is impacted by TSM’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bull Fund will be perfectly exposed to TSM at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bull Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to TSM increases on days when TSM is volatile near the close of the trading day.
Daily Inverse Correlation Risk - A number of factors may affect the Bear Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of inverse correlation with TSM and therefore achieve its daily inverse investment objective. The Bear Fund’s exposure to TSM is impacted by TSM’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bear Fund will be perfectly exposed to TSM at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bear Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to TSM increases on days when TSM is volatile near the close of the trading day.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Investing Risk – TSM faces risks associated with the highly competitive nature of the semiconductor industry; economic and market uncertainty; reductions in demand for its products; potential concentration of revenues in a few large clients as among other risks.
Semiconductor Industry Risk – Semiconductor companies may face intense competition, both domestically and internationally, may have limited product lines, markets, financial resources or personnel and may face risks related to the availability of materials. Technology Sector Risk — The market prices of technology-related securities tend to exhibit a greater degree of market risk and sharp price fluctuations than other types of securities.
Additional risks of each Fund include Effects of Compounding and Market Volatility Risk, Derivatives Risk, Counterparty Risk, Rebalancing Risk, Intra-Day Investment Risk, Industry Concentration Risk, Market Risk, Indirect Investment Risk, and Cash Transaction Risk. Additionally, for the Direxion Daily TSM Bear 1X Shares, Shorting or Inverse Risk. Please see the summary and full prospectuses for a more complete description of these and other risks of a Fund.