FOMO or Fakeout? Gold Miners Are Pumping – Trade Accordingly
Editor's note: Any and all references to time frames longer than one trading day are for purposes of market context only, and not recommendations of any holding time frame. Daily rebalancing ETFs are not meant to be held unmonitored for long periods. If you don't have the resources, time or inclination to constantly monitor and manage your positions, leveraged and inverse ETFs are not for you.
Gold mining stocks have been on a decent run so far in 2025, outpacing bullion itself. While gold prices remain a key driver, mining stocks can behave differently, offering traders a way to express a short-term view on a derivative of gold with higher beta.
With inflationary* pressures, geopolitical risks, and central bank activity in focus, traders continue to debate whether gold’s next move will push mining stocks even higher—or whether shifting Federal Reserve policy and rising Treasury yields could weigh on the sector. Gold prices are positive so far this year despite pulling back a bit recently to around $3,000 an ounce.
Below is a daily chart of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index* as of February 28, 2025.
Source: StockCharts.com, February 28, 2025.
Candlestick charts display the high and low (the stick) and the open and close price (the body) of a security for a specific period. If the body is filled, it means the close was lower than the open. If the body is empty, it means the close was higher than the open.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The blue line represents the 50-day moving average.*
In fact, professional traders are moving into gold ETFs at a record pace as the price of the precious metal hits an all-time high, TipRanks reports. Meanwhile, Bitcoin prices have been extra volatile* recently and the relatively new ETFs tracking the cryptocurrency saw a record one-day outflow, according to Bloomberg.
For those looking for a position in gold miner stocks in either direction, leveraged ETFs can provide a tactical way to trade gold miners’ volatility. But first, let’s examine some of the key bullish and bearish catalysts at play.
Bullish Catalysts for Gold Miners
Gold mining stocks often provide traders with a leveraged play on gold prices, but they can also be driven by broader macroeconomic and market forces. While gold itself has remained firm, miners have shown even stronger performance in 2025, reflecting investor positioning around inflation, global uncertainty, and the potential for changing monetary policy.
With central banks accumulating gold, inflation remaining sticky, and market volatility rising, gold miners could have further room to run. Here are some of the key catalysts supporting their strength:
Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset in an Uncertain Market: Several factors continue to support gold as a hedge against uncertainty:
- Geopolitical risks remain high, with ongoing conflicts and trade disputes around the world
- Policy uncertainty persists, with changing Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and tariff discussions
- The U.S. stock market has been wobbly lately and sentiment has pulled back on recession concerns and continued worries about elevated valuations
Commodities Like Gold Can Outperform in Inflationary Environments: Historically, gold has been one of the best-performing assets in inflationary cycles. With rising labor costs, tariffs, and geopolitical instability contributing to higher inflation, gold prices could remain supported—lifting mining stocks alongside them.
Central Banks Are Holding Gold as a Reserve Currency: Central banks around the world continue to increase gold reserves as an alternative to traditional currencies, especially given ongoing tariff uncertainty. This sustained demand could provide a long-term tailwind for gold prices and, by extension, mining stocks.
Bearish Catalysts for Gold Miners
Despite the strong performance of gold miners this year, risks remain. Macroeconomic headwinds, shifting monetary policy, and rising costs could pose challenges for the sector. Any pullback or signs of Fed policy tightening could pressure mining stocks.
Moreover, miners don’t always move in lockstep with gold, and their outperformance so far in 2025 could lead to profit-taking if momentum stalls. Below are some of the key downside risks for traders to watch:
Higher Treasury Yields Could Reduce Gold’s Appeal: If bond yields continue climbing, investors may favor Treasuries over gold as a safe-haven asset. This could pressure gold prices and weigh on mining stocks.
Gold Miners Face Higher Operating Costs: While mining stocks have been strong, rising labor costs due to tighter immigration laws, along with tariffs and geopolitical risks driving up input costs, could create headwinds. If these cost pressures accelerate, gold miners may face margin compression.
Gold Miners Can Behave Differently Than Gold Itself: While gold prices have been steady, gold mining stocks have already outpaced gold’s performance this year. If gold prices stall or pull back, miners—being more volatile—could be vulnerable to profit-taking.
How Traders Can Position for Volatility in Gold Miners
Traders looking for short-term opportunities in gold mining stocks can consider Direxion’s leveraged and inverse ETFs.
The Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (Ticker: NUGT) and Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares (Ticker: DUST) seek daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200%, or 200% of the inverse (or opposite), respectively, of the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index*.
For traders looking to take a bit more speculative position through small-cap miners, the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (Ticker: JNUG) or the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares (Ticker: JDST) are potential options. These funds seek daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200%, or 200% of the inverse (or opposite), respectively, of the performance of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index*.
As always, traders should monitor gold price movements, central bank actions, and macroeconomic data to refine their strategies.
*Definitions and Index Descriptions
An investor should carefully consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Direxion Shares. To obtain a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit our website at direxion.com. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.
Leveraged and Inverse ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying index over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by sophisticated investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments.
The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies that operate globally in both developed and emerging markets, and are involved primarily in mining for gold and, to a lesser extent, in mining for silver. The Index will limit the weight of companies whose revenues are more significantly exposed to silver mining to less than 20% of the Index at each rebalance date. The Index may include small- and mid-capitalization companies and foreign issuers.
The MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) tracks the performance of foreign and domestic micro-, small- and mid-capitalization companies that generate, or demonstrate the potential to generate, at least 50% of their revenues from, or have at least 50% of their assets related to, gold mining and/or silver mining, hold real property or have mining projects that have the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.
One cannot directly invest in an index.
Direxion Shares Risks – An investment in a Fund involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. A Fund is non-diversified and includes risks associated with the Fund’s concentrating its investments in a particular industry, sector, or geography which can increase volatility. The use of derivatives such as futures contracts and swaps are subject to market risks that may cause prices to fluctuate over time.
Leverage Risk – Each Fund obtains investment exposure in excess of its net assets by utilizing leverage and may lose more money in market conditions that are adverse to its investment objective than a fund that does not utilize leverage. A total loss may occur in a single day. Leverage will also have the effect of magnifying any differences in the Fund’s correlation or inverse correlation with the Index and may increase the volatility of the Fund.
Daily Index Correlation Risk – A number of factors may affect the Bull Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of correlation with the Index and therefore achieve its daily leveraged investment objective. The Bull Fund’s exposure to the Index is impacted by the Index’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bull Fund will be perfectly exposed to the Index at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bull Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to the Index increases on days when the Index is volatile near the close of the trading day.
Daily Inverse Index Correlation Risk – A number of factors may affect the Bear Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of inverse correlation with the Index and therefore achieve its daily inverse leveraged investment objective. The Bear Fund’s exposure to the Index is impacted by the Index’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bear Fund will be perfectly exposed to the Index at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bear Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to the Index increases on days when the Index is volatile near the close of the trading day.
Gold and Silver Mining Company Risk – Gold and silver mining companies are highly dependent on the price of gold and silver bullion, respectively, and may be adversely affected by a variety of worldwide economic, financial and political factors.
Mining and Metal Industry Risk – Mining and metal companies can be significantly affected by international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, taxes and government regulations.
Additional risks of each Fund include Effects of Compounding and Market Volatility Risk, Market Risk, Counterparty Risk, Rebalancing Risk, Intra-Day Investment Risk, Other Investment Companies (including ETFs Risk), Cash Transaction Risk, Passive Investment and Index Performance Risk and for the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares and the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares, Shorting or Inverse Risk. Please see the summary and full prospectuses for a more complete description of these and other risks of a Fund.