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Amazon’s Double-Edged Sword: Cloud Gains vs. Legal Pains – What’s the Trade?

Xchange NewsletterSeptember 13, 2024 | 4 min read
Amazon delivery man rolling packages on a dolley

Editor's note: Any and all references to time frames longer than one trading day are for purposes of market context only, and not recommendations of any holding time frame. Daily rebalancing ETFs are not meant to be held unmonitored for long periods. If you don't have the resources, time or inclination to constantly monitor and manage your positions, leveraged and inverse ETFs are not for you.

Investing in the funds involves a high degree of risk. Unlike traditional ETFs, or even other leveraged and/or inverse ETFs, these leveraged and/or inverse single-stock ETFs track the price of a single stock rather than an index, eliminating the benefits of diversification. Leveraged and inverse ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying stock’s performance over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. The Funds will lose money if the underlying stock’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Bull Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance increases, and the Bear Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance decreases, over a period longer than a single day. Investing in the Funds is not equivalent to investing directly in AMZN.

Amazon has solidified its status as a dominant force in e-commerce and cloud computing. The company's recent second-quarter results reflect robust growth, with net sales reaching $148.0 billion, a 10% increase year-over-year. Notably, Amazon Web Services (AWS) contributed $26.3 billion, up 19% from the previous year, underscoring its importance to the company's bottom line.

Short-Term Pros for Amazon Stock

AWS Growth: AWS continues to expand rapidly, cementing its position as the world's leading cloud platform. Recent strategic partnerships, including a $2 billion deal with the Australian Government, enhance its growth prospects. As businesses increasingly adopt cloud solutions and explore artificial intelligence (AI) opportunities, AWS remains a key growth driver for Amazon. Short-term traders may capitalize on this momentum, expecting further upside in the stock.

AI Innovations: Amazon's involvement in AI is significant, and the European Artificial Intelligence Act could impact the company's operations. This also positions Amazon to be at the forefront of AI development. Positive news or advancements in AI could lead to stock gains, offering a short-term trading opportunity.

Short-Term Cons for Amazon Stock

Regulatory Scrutiny: Amazon faces growing regulatory challenges in both the U.S. and Europe. In the U.S., a class-action lawsuit related to price gouging during COVID-19 could lead to reputational damage or financial penalties. In Europe, the Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act impose stringent rules on big tech companies, potentially limiting Amazon's operations and increasing compliance costs. These developments could lead to short-term volatility* or downside in the stock.

Economic Uncertainty: As economic concerns persist, discretionary spending may weaken, impacting Amazon's retail business. Additionally, tighter regulations in key markets could hinder growth, especially in Europe. Short-term traders should be cautious of potential downturns driven by these factors.

Leveraged Trading Opportunities

For those looking to trade Amazon's stock over the next few weeks, Direxion offers Single Stock Daily Leveraged and Inverse ETFs such as the Direxion Daily AMZN Bull 2X Shares (Ticker: AMZU) and the Direxion Daily AMZN Bear 1X Shares (Ticker: AMZD). These ETFs allow traders to amplify their exposure on Amazon's stock movements, with AMZU seeking daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the performance of Amazon.com, Inc. common stock, and AMZD seeking daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 100% of the inverse (or opposite) of the performance of Amazon.com, Inc. common stock.

Conclusion

While Amazon's AWS growth and AI ventures present attractive short-term opportunities, regulatory risks and economic uncertainties could pose challenges. Traders can use Direxion’s Daily Single Stock Leveraged and Inverse ETFs to seek to capitalize on these short-term trends, but should remain mindful of the inherent risks associated with leveraged products.

*Definitions and Index Descriptions

An investor should carefully consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Direxion Shares. To obtain a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit our website at direxion.com. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.

The Funds have derived all disclosures contained in this document regarding Amazon.com, Inc. from publicly available documents. In connection with the offering of each Fund’s securities, neither the Funds, the Trust, nor the Adviser or any of its respective affiliates has participated in the preparation of such documents. Neither the Funds, the Trust nor the Adviser or any of its respective affiliates makes any representation that such publicly available documents or any other publicly available information regarding Amazon.com, Inc. is accurate or complete. Furthermore, the Funds cannot give any assurance that all events occurring prior to the date hereof (including events that would affect the accuracy or completeness of the publicly available documents described above) that would affect the trading price of Amazon.com, Inc. have been publicly disclosed. Subsequent disclosure of any such events or the disclosure of or failure to disclose material future events concerning Amazon.com, Inc. could affect the value of a Fund’s investments with respect to Amazon.com, Inc. and therefore the value of the Funds.

Consumer Discretionary Sector Risk — Because companies in the consumer discretionary sector manufacture products and provide discretionary services directly to the consumer, the success of these companies is tied closely to the performance of the overall domestic and international economy, including the functioning of the global supply chain, interest rates, competition and consumer confidence.

Amazon.com, Inc. Investing Risk — Amazon.com, Inc. faces risks associated with intense competition across different industries, including physical, e-commerce omni channel retail, e-commerce services, web and infrastructure computing services, electronic devices, digital content, advertising, grocery, and transportation and logistics services; the expansion into new products, services, technologies and geographic regions; its international activities; the variability in the demand for its products and services; fraudulent and unlawful activities of sellers; intellectual property rights; successfully optimizing and operating its fulfilment network and data centers; data loss or other security breaches; maintaining and hiring necessary key management personnel; maintaining good supplier relationships; the success of acquisitions or joint ventures or other investments; its rapidly evolving and expanding business model; and legal, regulatory, tax liability and litigation issues.

Direxion Shares Risks – An investment in each Fund involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Each Fund is non-diversified and includes risks associated with a Fund concentrating its investments in a particular security, industry, sector, or geographic region which can result in increased volatility. A Fund's investments in derivatives such as futures contracts and swaps may pose risks in addition to, and greater than, those associated with directly investing in securities or other investments, including imperfect correlations with underlying investments or the Fund's other portfolio holdings, higher price volatility and lack of availability. As a result, the value of an investment in a Fund may change quickly and without warning. Risks of the Funds include Effects of Compounding and Market Volatility Risk, Derivatives Risk, Counterparty Risk, Rebalancing Risk, Intra-Day Investment Risk, Amazon.com, Inc. Investing Risk, Market Risk, Industry Concentration Risk, Indirect Investment Risk, Cash Transaction Risk and risks specific to the consumer discretionary sector and internet company industry. Additional risks include, for the Direxion Daily AMZN Bull 2X Shares, Leverage Risk and Daily Correlation Risk, and for the Direxion Daily AMZN Bear 1X Shares, Shorting or Inverse Risk as well as Daily Inverse Correlation Risk. Please see the summary and full prospectuses for a more complete description of these and other risks of the Funds.

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