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AI Chips Don’t Crumble: Will Nvidia’s Record Streak Continue?

Xchange NewsletterDecember 13, 2024 | 3 min read
GPU chip on fire on a black background

Editor’s note: Any and all references to time frames longer than one trading day are for purposes of market context only, and not recommendations of any holding time frame. Daily rebalancing ETFs are not meant to be held unmonitored for long periods. If you don’t have the resources, time or inclination to constantly monitor and manage your positions, leveraged and inverse ETFs are not for you.

Investing in the funds involves a high degree of risk. Unlike traditional ETFs, or even other leveraged and/or inverse ETFs, these leveraged and/or inverse single-stock ETFs track the price of a single stock rather than an index, eliminating the benefits of diversification. Leveraged and inverse ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying stock’s performance over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. The Funds will lose money if the underlying stock’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Bull Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance increases, and the Bear Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance decreases, over a period longer than a single day. An investor could lose the full principal value of his or her investment in a single day. Investing in the Funds is not equivalent to investing directly in NVDA.

Shares of NVIDIA Corporation have continued to spin their wheels near record highs after their latest earnings results showed a record revenue of $35.1 billion, which came in above the consensus estimates of $33.1 billion. It also marked a 94% year-over-year increase as data centers drove much of this growth. Nvidia remains at the forefront of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. So, after another record quarter, what comes next for this tech giant?

Can Nvidia Continue Current Growth Rates?

Nvidia is reinforcing their position at the forefront of technological innovation. It continues to lead with its graphics processing units (GPUs) which have found applications far beyond gaming into areas like artificial intelligence, data centers, and automotive industries.

Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, also emphasized the ongoing demand for their Hopper GPUs and the significant anticipation for the new Blackwell architecture. This can help drive strong future growth prospects in AI and computing technologies.

The company has recently introduced Omniverse, which a platform for designing and simulating virtual worlds. This has applications in industrial design, robotics, and virtual collaboration. The tool leverages Nvidia's technology to help create a collaborative ecosystem where creators can work together in real-time within a shared virtual space.

Short-term Traders that think Nvidia can continue to innovate and drive growth in the tech space may find a trade with Direxion’s Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares (Ticker: NVDU), which seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the performance in common shares of NVIDIA Corporation (Ticker: NVDA).

Below is a daily chart of NVDA as of November 22, 2024.

Daily chart of NVDA as of November 22, 2024

Source: TradingView.com

Candlestick charts display the high and low (the stick) and the open and close price (the body) of a security for a specific period. If the body is filled, it means the close was lower than the open. If the body is empty, it means the close was higher than the open.

The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Can a Lack of Diversification Cause Problems?

One of the issues Nvidia could be facing is their heavy reliance on data centers and AI for driving growth. Even though business is good now, a shift in tech trends or increased competition from companies like Intel or Advanced Micro Devices could challenge this stronghold.

Not to mention, the company faces supply chain challenges. Any disruption in their ability to secure inputs could affect their ability to deliver products, potentially impacting revenue and market share.

Tariffs from the incoming Trump administration is another factor that could disrupt their supply chains. Traders would be wise to monitor upcoming developments that should shake up existing trade agreements at the international level.

Those that think Nvidia has downside risks right now may have a trade with Direxion’s Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares (Ticker: NVDD), which seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 100% of the inverse performance in common shares of Nvidia Corporation (Ticker: NVDA).

Additional Equity and Leveraged Sector Funds

Direxion offers traders numerous ways to take leveraged, sector-based plays, as well as offering additional individual equity plays aside from Nvidia. These include stocks like Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Tesla and more. Investing in the Funds are not equivalent to investing directly in the underlying stocks and involves a high degree of risk.

Traders looking to trade the tech sector with leverage may be interested in the Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares (Ticker: TECL) and the Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (Ticker: TECS). These funds seek daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300%, or 300% of the inverse (or opposite), of the performance of the Technology Select Sector Index*.

For those seeking additional Single Stock Daily Leveraged & Inverse ETFs, the Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 2X Shares (Ticker: MSFU) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the performance of Microsoft Corporation common stock, while the Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares (Ticker: MSFD) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 100% of the inverse (or opposite) of Microsoft Corporation common stock.

The Direxion Daily META Bull 2X Shares (Ticker: METU) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the performance of Meta Platforms, Inc. common stock, while the Direxion Daily META Bear 1X Shares (Ticker: METD) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 100% of the inverse (or opposite) of the performance of Meta Platforms, Inc. common stock.

The Direxion Daily AAPL Bull 2X Shares (Ticker: AAPU) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the performance of Apple Inc. common stock (Ticker: AAPL) before fees and expenses, while the Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1X Shares (Ticker: AAPD) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 100% of the inverse (or opposite) of the performance of Apple Inc. common stock (Ticker: AAPL).

The Direxion Daily AMZN Bull 2X Shares (Ticker: AMZU) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the performance of Amazon.com, Inc. common stock, while the Direxion Daily AMZN Bear 1X Shares (Ticker: AMZD) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 100% of the inverse (or opposite) of the performance of Amazon.com, Inc. common stock.

*Definitions and Index Descriptions

An investor should carefully consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Direxion Shares. To obtain a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit our website at direxion.com. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.

The Funds have derived all disclosures contained in this document regarding NVIDIA Corporation from publicly available documents. In connection with the offering of each Fund’s securities, neither the Funds, the Trust, nor the Adviser or any of its respective affiliates has participated in the preparation of such documents. Neither the Funds, the Trust nor the Adviser or any of its respective affiliates makes any representation that such publicly available documents or any other publicly available information regarding NVIDIA Corporation is accurate or complete. Furthermore, the Funds cannot give any assurance that all events occurring prior to the date hereof (including events that would affect the accuracy or completeness of the publicly available documents described above) that would affect the trading price of NVIDIA Corporation have been publicly disclosed. Subsequent disclosure of any such events or the disclosure of or failure to disclose material future events concerning NVIDIA Corporation could affect the value of a Fund’s investments with respect to NVIDIA Corporation and therefore the value of the Funds.

The Technology Select Sector Index (IXTTR) is provided by S&P Dow Jones Indices and includes domestic companies from the technology sector which includes the following industries: computers and peripherals; software; diversified telecommunications services; communications equipment; semiconductors and semi-conductor equipment; internet software and services; IT services; electronic equipment, instruments and components; wireless telecommunication services; and office electronics.

Direxion Shares Risks – An investment in a Fund involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Each Fund is non-diversified and includes risks associated with a Fund concentrating its investments in a particular security, industry, sector, or geographic region which can result in increased volatility. A Fund’s investments in derivatives such as futures contracts and swaps may pose risks in addition to, and greater than, those associated with directly investing in securities or other investments, including imperfect correlations with underlying investments or the Fund’s other portfolio holdings, higher price volatility and lack of availability. As a result, the value of an investment in a Fund may change quickly and without warning.

Leverage Risk – The Bull Fund obtains investment exposure in excess of its net assets by utilizing leverage and may lose more money in market conditions that are adverse to its investment objective than a fund that does not utilize leverage. A total loss may occur in a single day. Leverage will also have the effect of magnifying any differences in the Fund’s correlation with NVDA and may increase the volatility of the Bull Fund.

Daily Correlation Risk – A number of factors may affect the Bull Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of correlation with NVDA and therefore achieve its daily leveraged investment objective. The Bull Fund’s exposure to NVDA is impacted by NVDA’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bull Fund will be perfectly exposed to NVDA at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bull Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to NVDA increases on days when NVDA is volatile near the close of the trading day.

Daily Inverse Correlation Risk – A number of factors may affect the Bear Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of inverse correlation with NVDA and therefore achieve its daily inverse investment objective. The Bear Fund’s exposure to NVDA is impacted by NVDA’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bear Fund will be perfectly exposed to NVDA at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bear Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to NVDA increases on days when NVDA is volatile near the close of the trading day.

NVIDIA Corporation Investing Risk — NVIDIA Corporation faces risks associated with meeting the evolving needs of its large markets – gaming, data center, professional visualization and automotive – and identifying new products, services and technologies; competition in its current and target markets; changes in customer demand; supply chain issues; manufacturing delays; potential significant mismatches between supply and demand giving rise to product shortages or excessive inventory; the dependence on third-parties and their technology to manufacture, assemble, test, package or design its products which reduces control over product quantity and quality, manufacturing yields, development, enhancement and product delivery schedules; significant product defects; international operations, including adverse economic conditions; impacts from climate change, including water and energy availability; business investment and acquisitions; system security and data protection breaches, including cyberattacks; business disruptions; a limited number of customers; the ability to attract, retain and motivate executives and key employees; the proper function of its business processes and information systems; its intellectual property; and other regulatory and legal issues.

Semiconductor Industry Risk – Semiconductor companies may face intense competition, both domestically and internationally, may have limited product lines, markets, financial resources or personnel and may face risks related to the availability of materials.

Technology Sector Risk — The market prices of technology-related securities tend to exhibit a greater degree of market risk and sharp price fluctuations than other types of securities. These securities may fall in and out of favor with investors rapidly, which may cause sudden selling and dramatically lower market prices.

Additional risks of each Fund include Effects of Compounding and Market Volatility Risk, Derivatives Risk, Counterparty Risk, Rebalancing Risk, Intra-Day Investment Risk, Industry Concentration Risk, Market Risk, Indirect Investment Risk, and Cash Transaction Risk. Additionally, for the Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares, Shorting or Inverse Risk. Please see the summary and full prospectuses for a more complete description of these and other risks of a Fund.

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